Doing the Qualification Sums

In my report on the Ireland v Zimbabwe game, I mentioned that both Ireland and Zimbabwe now needed to win both their remaining games to reach the Super Eight. Having just sat down and worked out the possible permutations, that's not quite the case - but while there are possibilities, don't hold your breath.

Not counting ties or no results (this is complicated enough, thank you), I make it that there are 16 possible sets of results from the remaining 4 games in Group D. 6 of those combinations result in Zimbabwe qualifying; 4 or them will come down to the Net Run Rate calculation between Zimbabwe and Ireland.

The easy option (in maths terms) first: if Zimbabwe beat both Pakistan and West Indies, they're through.
The "need some help" options: if Zimbabwe beat West Indies, and Ireland beat both Pakistan and West Indies; or Zimbabwe beat Pakistan, and Ireland lose both their remaining matches, then Zim are through.
The NRR options: if Zimbabwe and Ireland each win one and lose one of their remaining games, then the Net Run Rate will decide who goes through from Zimbabwe or Ireland.

Clear as mud? Good. I don't guarantee my working is 100% accurate, but it should give a reasonable idea of what Zim needs to progress. The options will narrow a bit after the Ireland v Pakistan match tomorrow (Saturday), so I'll look at this again then.

Comments

[...] Zimcricketnews figures out three Zimbabwe’s options in the World Cup Cricket 2007, “The easy option (in maths terms) first: if Zimbabwe beat both Pakistan and West Indies, they’re through. The “need some help” options: if Zimbabwe beat West Indies, and Ireland beat both Pakistan and West Indies; or Zimbabwe beat Pakistan, and Ireland lose both their remaining matches, then Zim are through. The NRR options: if Zimbabwe and Ireland each win one and lose one of their remaining games, then the Net Run Rate will decide who goes through from Zimbabwe or Ireland.” Ndesanjo Macha [...]